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Tariff uncertainty may lead to a recession in developed economies by 2025, according to Barclays' global chairman of research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha. As the US proposes new tariffs, the firm has shifted its investment strategy to favor fixed income over global equities, citing rising policy uncertainty and market volatility driven by the Trump administration's aggressive policies. Rajadhyaksha expressed genuine concern about risk assets for the first time in years, highlighting the impact of ongoing trade tensions.
Global growth is projected to slow to 2.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, amid rising tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty. While the US faces weak consumer confidence and potential job cuts, Europe struggles with sluggish activity and competition from China. Analysts now favor bonds over stocks for the first time in years, recommending higher cash allocations as clarity on policy remains elusive.
U.S. growth forecasts indicate a stagflationary outlook, with Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha asserting that the anticipated Fed rate cuts are likely to be incorrect. He emphasized that the key development this week was the confirmation of additional tariffs in April, which adds economic uncertainty.
India is expected to be less impacted than other Asian countries if a slowdown in the U.S. economy occurs, according to Barclays. Ajay Rajadhyaksha, the global chairman of research at Barclays, elaborated on the potential effects of this economic downturn on the region.
Ajay Rajadhyaksha
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